Refi Activity Slows — What It Means for CA Homebuyers

Agency MBS refi volume dropped sharply in Q3 2026, while purchase mortgage activity picked up. Here's what this shift signals for California buyers and borrowers.

The mortgage market sent a clear signal in the third quarter of 2026: refinancing is cooling off, and purchase activity is taking center stage.

Refinance volume fell by more than 46% quarter-over-quarter, dropping to just under $74 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities. Meanwhile, purchase mortgage volume climbed 12.5% over the same period — a healthy sign that buyers are still active despite the rate environment.

For California homebuyers, this is actually an encouraging trend. Lenders are increasingly focused on purchase transactions, which means more attention, more competitive programs, and better service for buyers working through the process right now.

If you've been sitting on the fence waiting for rates to drop before refinancing, the data suggests you're not alone — but that also means when rates do shift, there could be a wave of demand. Getting ahead of that now, or locking in the right purchase loan before competition heats up, could be a smart move.

Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, or investing in California real estate, now is a great time to explore your loan options. Contact us today and let's find the right mortgage strategy for your goals.